Title: Time scales in early warnings: a probabilistic approach

Abstract: In recent years there has been an increasing awareness of the risks of collapse or tipping points in a wide variety of complex systems, ranging from human medical conditions, pandemics, predator-prey and other ecosystems to climate, finance and society. Though these are governed by very different dynamics, they are characterized by variations on multiple spatial and temporal scales. This leads to incomplete understanding or uncertainty in modelling of the dynamics. Even in systems where governing equations are known, predictability is limited by the chaotic nature of the system and by the limited resolution in observations and computer simulations. In order to progress in analyzing these complex systems, assuming unresolved scales and chaotic dynamics beyond the horizon of prediction as being stochastic has proven itself efficient and successful.  

When complex systems undergo critical transitions by changing a control parameter through a critical value, a structural change in the dynamics happens, the previously statistically stable state ceases to exist and the system moves to a different statistically stable state. In order to establish under which conditions an early warning for tipping can be given, we consider a simple stochastic model, which can be considered a generic representative of many complex two state systems.

About Susanne Ditlevsen: http://web.math.ku.dk/~susanne/

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